Turkey Day '06

For those of you that don't recall last year's "Turkey Day", PilotPicks was perfect, going 4-0. This year looks to be no different as the Birdman has 3 NFL winners for you to choose from:

First, in the morning game, I like the Lions +3 at home against the Dolphins. The Fins are winning, but one must look deep within the wins to see exactly how they are doing so. Against the Chiefs two weeks ago (a game the Birdman happened to attend), Miami did not impress anyone with their 13-10 victory, but the Chiefs, who were missing 6 starters due to injury, played their worst game since the opening week loss to the Bengals. And they still had a chance to win in the end. Then, last week, the Dolphins beat the Vikings 24-20 even though they had negative 1 yard rushing on the day. They won because of two defensive TD's in the 4th Quarter. I just think that too many people are jumping on Miami's bandwagon and forgetting that they are a bad team with Joey Harrington as their QB. It was always good to bet against Harrington on turkey day when he was a Lion, and nothing has changed now that he is a Dolphin. I don't think that Miami can pull off the victory against Martz and the Lions in Detroit.

Detroit +3 (**)

For the afternoon, I am going against the grain and picking the Bucs +11 at Dallas. I am doing so for 2 very good reasons. One, Dallas is coming off a very emotional, season-saving victory over teh Colts last week. Two, next week, Dallas plays the Giants, in New York. This game is what we like to call a sandwich game (or "lookahead" game if you prefer). The Cowboys will try to win this game while utilizing as little as possible...they are not overly worried about Tampa. ANyone who thinks they won't be peaking ahead to New York next week is lying to himself. Tampa, on the other hand, will not quit as they have a lot of young players and a coach that will not let them quit on him. They are coming off a win against Washington and would like nothing better than to stick it to Parcells.

Tampa Bay +11 (**)

Finally, I am not being a homer on this one, but take the Chiefs +1 at home against the Broncos. The Chiefs are a completely different team at Arrowhead and this is the definition of a "must" game for Kansas City. After their opening game loss to the Bengals, The Chiefs have won 4 straight at home (including beating the Chargers 34-31 a couple weeks ago. They have won their past 3 games against the Broncos in Arrowhead and it seems that, no matter the record, the Broncos have a difficult time competing here. Last year, this game was played in an almost identical situation and the Chiefs won it 31-27. This is the first night game in Turkey Day history and the Chiefs fans here couldn't be happier about it. Screw sitting around the table saying thanks, the Chefs' fans are going to be tailgating around a barbeque grill saying "F#$% the Broncos." The snake "ain't got it" according to Dr. Moonlight...I tend to agree.

Kansas City +1 (***)