Fresh off a great victory on the over and Akron in last night's game (love the touchdown at the end just to help some who would have pushed with the over), I am ready to give you the winner in tonight's matchup between La Tech and Fresno State...
Tonight seems like one of those nights, where on first glance the underdog seems like the logical choice...but in this case, it's not. Fresno is the pick to cover the spread of 22 1/2 and I have numerous reasons as to why. First, let's address Fresno's "problems." Fresno went into the USC game with the 25th rated run defense and has swallowed up teams that try to run on them at home. However, they went to USC and got ran all over (who doesn't???). Then they went to play at Nevada, where they obviously were not over their heartbreaking loss to USC and they laid an egg. Nevada ran for over 2oo yards on them. Nevada, save one game against Boise where they were down so much they had to pass, has ran for an average of 190 yards per game in their last 6. They were a good running team going up against a team that had just beaten rival Boise State and lost to USC in the previous 2 weeks...they weren't ready at all. This game is different. First, Fresno is at home where they are allowing only 13 points per game and 279 yards of total offense including a meager 3.3 yards per rush. La Tech is an ok running team AT HOME, however on the road they average only 3.0 yards per carry and less than 100 yards per game.
La Tech is 0-6 as a road underdog of 21-30 points in the last three years, while Fresno is 5-0 in the past three years when favored by 21-30 points. In road games, La Tech is 2-3 straight up and just 1-4 against the spread this year. AND Fresno, at home, is 5-0 straight up and 3-1 against the spread. Their only loss being when they were favored by 35 against Utah State and ONLY won by 32 (53-21).
Fresno averages 45 points per game at home. La Tech's coach has already come out and said that they can't win a shootout with Fresno so they will try to use ball control and run the ball. Well, the stats don't lie and they won't be able to and therefore they will be forced into lots of 3rd and long's, situations where Fresno's attacking defense can thrive. Fresno also is playing with lots of revenge as they were undefeated and ranked 17th in the BCS last year when they visited La Tech and lost 28-21. They have not forgotten this game as their pre-game quotes have shown. Top that off with the fact that Fresno is playing for a tie for the conference championship tonight and they have even that much more motivation.
One more stat. I usually don't like the comparison between common opponents, however both teams recently played Boise State at home. Fresno dominated after a fluke first play tuochdown by Boise to win 27-7 while La Tech got drilled 30-13. Fresno is the much better team tonight. They will win this one by 30.
Fresno State -22 1/2
12/2/05
La Tech @ Fresno St.
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5 comments:
Do the Birdman and Murdoch have anythought on the over and under? Also, great jobs on the pick yesterday guys. Keep up the good works.
The under is 6-3 in Fresno State's last nine, but the over has been the play the last two weeks. The under is 3-1 in Louisiana Tech's last four and 3-1 at Bulldog Stadium for the season.
Murdoch probably won't be responding before gametime, but I feel that after talking, we would give this game 2 stars.
Good luck. Go Bulldogs.
HA! nice pick birdman! i live in studio, dr.moonlight, you fuck!
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WHY DON'T WE HAVE A LITTLE CHALLENGE?? ARE YOU AFRAID TO PUT
YOUR REP ON THE LINE?? IT'S EASY TO CRITISIZE FROM THE OTHER SIDE. STEP UP TO THE PLATE AND LETS SEE WHAT YOU HAVE. IF NOT, KEEP YOU COMMENTS TO YOUR SELF!! I'M SURE NO ONE WANTS TO SEE YOUR POSTS ON HERE ANYMORE UNLESS YOU HAVE SOMETHING POSITIVE TO SAY.
GUYS, GODD WORK AND THANKS FOR ALL
OF YOUR EFFORTS!!!!
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