NFL Playoff Saturday -- 01/07/06

Today, I have to say that the Redskins are the pick. I can't understand why everyone is saying that the Skins are limping into the playoffs. Yes, they are banged up, but they have won their last 5 games...is that limping? I feel that the Skins are the better team and were set up to beat Tampa in their last matchup before a miracle drive (passes) by Simms and a controversal two point conversion. I like the experience of Brunell over Simms in this one as well as the fact that Portis should be able to find plenty of running room today, just like he did in their last matchup (144 yards). The Skins have the advantage in size and strength in both lines and this should be the edge in this hard fought game. I believe that the Skins will win this game outright and planned on betting the money line, but then I saw that it was only +110 while buying a half point on the spread gives you Skins +3 for -130...that is just not a big enough money line to justify not taking the points (compare: moneyline $100 to win 110 -- +3 is $130 to win 100). In what I think will be a close game, I can't justify not taking the 3 points for the little difference in money. Buy the half point here and take the Skins +3.

Washington Redskins +3 (**)


In the second game, I have thought all week that I would go with the Jags because 7 1/2 points is too much to give a team with a good defense in a playoff game. But I have now switched my thought on this game. The more I consider everything in this game, I just do not think that it will be close. It is the Pats, at home, in a playoff game, at cold Foxboro, against a Florida team with no playoff experience, against Tom and Bill who are peeved at the fact that they have been written off as a Superbowl contender even though they are the two-time defending champs. I can't justify not picking the Pats here. Top off that with the fact that Leftwich is playing for the first time in weeks (and he is still injured) and Fred Taylor is banged up (like always) and the Jags just do not have a shot in this one. Yes, the Jags are 12-4 but their last nine wins came against the Rams, Texans, Ravens, Titans, Cards, Browns, Niners, Texans, Titans (Combined record: 38-106). They are by far the worst 12-4 team in the history of the NFL...in fact I am not sure if there were any worse 11-5 teams.

Like the game above, might as well buy the 1/2 point to make it -7 just in case a late score brings them within 7...I don't think it is likely, but why take the risk?

New England Patriots -7 (**)