1/14/06 -- NFL Saturday including the NFL PLAYOFFS LOCK OF THE YEAR

Well, last Saturday I was 2-0 on NFL playoffs and I am 3-1 on picking the sides on the 4 games so far (should be 4-0, but Carson Palmer going down ruined that). I am looking to make it another unblemished Saturday.

First, take the Redskins in Seattle. I know that the Skins only had 120 yards of offense in last week's victory, and I know that Seattle is a superbowl contender, but I can't shake this feeling that this game will be closer than people think (definitely within 9 1/2 points). Remember the Skins beat the Seahawks in Seattle this year (in week 4) and I know that a lot has changed since, but this is still a sign for worry for Seahawks fans. Also, keep in mind that the Skins have only lost one game all year by more than 7 points (a 36-0 drubbing by NY which is unexplainable). The Skins will try to shorten the game by running it and making intermediate passes to move the chains. Remember, the playoffs is a different type of game...even if Seattle gets up, they will go conservative and try to "hold on" for the win. I don't think the Redskins will win this game, but I think they will keep it within the number in a game that is closer than people are expecting (and who knows, they might pull off a shocker).

WASH +10 (**) (buy the 1/2 point from 9 1/2)

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NFL PLAYOFFS LOCK OF THE YEAR!!!

In the night game, I am going to give you a sure winner. That's right, my NFL LOCK OF THE YEAR. Remember, you never bet against Tom and Bill in the playoffs because they have never lost a playoff game...right? Well Saturday is the time to buck that trend. Why? Because the Patriots will NOT win this game and the line is only at 3 points because of their history in the playoffs, not based upon this season. Yes, I know that the Broncos have not won a playoff game since Elway left (0-3) and the Patriots are 10-0 in the playoffs with Brady at the helm, but this game is a completely different story. First off, hidden beneath this stat of "0-3 in playoff games since Elway retired" is the fact that all 3 of those games were played on the road. In the Broncos last 10 home games they have outscored opponents by a 2-to-1 margin (262-131), rushing for 176.9 yards per game and allowing an average of 72.8. Simply put, they dominate at home as is evidenced by their 8-0 record this season.

Everyone says don't bet against the Patriots because they have a streak going...well is anyone else aware that Denver has won 9 of their last 10 home playoff games by an average of 14 points!!! Don't be fooled by the final score (28-20) of their game earlier in the year because Denver was in total domination leading 28-3 when before the Patriots scored the final 17 points to make the score look respectable.

The Patriots have been depleted because of injuries. Bruschi has been a difference-maker since coming back, but he is so banged up again that even if he plays, it will be at less than 100%. The Pats won't be able to run as they have a terrible run offense and the Broncos will be able to drop 7 becasue their front four is one of the best in football and can get pressure on a QB without blitzing. Don't be fooled by the Patriots drubbing of the Jags...as I stated in my prediction last week, the Jags were the worst 12-4 team in the history of the NFL and were going back to an injured QB that had not started in 5 games, they were playing on the road in the cold (as a FL team) and had no playoff experience. There was no way the Patriots were going to lose in that game.

These teams played at different levels all season. The Broncos finished at 13-3 playing in the NFL's toughest division (AFC West) and winning it with ease. Meanwhile, the Patriots played in arguably the weakest division. The Patriots played all 4 AFC West teams this year and went 1-3 (beating only the lowly Raiders 30-20 on opening night). They lost to the Broncos 28-20, Chiefs 26-16 and at home to the Chargers 41-17. They are just not as good as the Broncos and this game will prove that. Also to note is that, while everyone loves to talk about how great Tom Brady is, Maybe Shanahan has figured him out a bit considering that Brady is only 1-3 against the Broncos in his career.

Mark my words, the Broncos dominate in this one. Here is the kicker, I think that by game time, the line will actually go down because of the bias towards the Patriots. Right now I have it at -3, but I could see this going down. I am going to wait and see on this one b/c I would love to get this game at -2 1/2 or lower.

Broncos -3 (*****) -- NFL PLAYOFFS GAME OF THE YEAR