bowl season is the most magical time of the year, however the magic doesnt really start tonight in what the birdman would call a, "dog w/fleas." i know a lot of people hate the mac/c-usa mid week games because they're so unpredicatable. and in a way i agree, but at the same time that's what makes them enjoyable. tonight we've got the arkansas state indians, who really arent very good, against southern miss, who isnt too spectacular either.
my first instinct to look at this game is give me then indians +16 all day, you cant lay 2tds+ with 2 6-5 teams matching up in a bowl. BUT, arkstate has gotten absolutely killed in two out of their last three road games (@Army 10-38, @Middle Tenn. State 7-45). they did however handle 158th sagarin ranked North Texas 31-24 away in their regular season finale. this is a bad team in a terrible conference, and the birdman and i actually saw them play in their season opener against mizzou where they lost 44-17. the tigers were up 30-0 at half, and gary pinkel was calling the plays.
so we know they're bad, southern miss is 6-5 too, but 3 of those losses were by 4 or less. but at the same time they havent been able to cover a 17pt spread either.
all in all, no clear cut winner on the sides. i look at this game and know that southern miss will get their points, nothing helps a below average run team than a terrible run d. southern miss is bigger and faster and will be able to use the run to set up the pass, which we all know they're quite capable at. i also think that arky state will come out fired up for their first bowl game, and be able to score some points of their own. both teams average totals above 49, so we'll take it tonight.
OVER 49. (*)
12/20/05
the (not) New Orleans Bowl
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even when the score was 3-3, w/2min to go in the 2nd quarter, i knew it was an easy winner. another play on UTEP/Toledo tomorrow.
Off to a good start! Let's keep it rolling!!!
If we like both sides enough we will post both. For example, we played both the over and Ark state last night, but felt the most confident about the over so only posted it (for good reason as S. Miss easily could have scored 2 more touchdowns that game).
We will post at least one play per bowl game, sometimes more than one.
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