I am republishing the post from earlier this month on why Minn was a 5* pick at -3:
Take Minnesota -3 against Virginia. Minnesota has the number 2 rushing offense in the all of college football. On the other end of the spectrum, Virginia has the number 10 ranked run defense...in the ACC! Virginia is also losing both their defensive coordinator, their offensive coordinator, and their assistant head coach due to them taking other head coaching jobs. At least one, Prince (taking the K-State job) will not be coaching in the bowl game and even if the others do, they will not likely be putting their full effort into it as their focus will be on recruiting and such for their new team.
Here is a link to a story describing the dissaray that Virginia is in right now.
Minnesota is a good road team, winning 3 of 5 games on the road while averaging 230 yards per game on the ground. Virginia was only 1-4 on the road and gave up 170 yards a game on the road. Minnesota has also consistently been a good bowl team including a victory over favored Alabama last year. This number is too low as Minnesota will have their way with a distracted, and not really that good anyway, Virginia team.
Minnesota is a PilotPicks favorite at -3 (*****)
(As noted, Minn is a 5* at -3, but higher than that, it is a 4* up to 7 points. It is one of our top plays at -3, and still very strong at anything under -7).
12/30/05
Minnesota v. Virginia
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7 comments:
I got on this at -3 and I'm feeling really good about it now. Thanks for giving us the early scoop on this one.
Trev
I just can't make it a 5* game, which is our highest play, at anything over 3 points considering that Minn does not have a great defense that will guarantee that there is no backdoor td or two that could turn a 20 point game into a 6 point one (like in BC v. Boise). However, I see them going all out to stop a score that could bring them within a field goal.
Also, not that I expect this to happen in any regard, but at 3 points, even if this game went to overtime by some miracle, 3 is a great number to have in OT.
The fact that it was on 3 points is what made this a 5* game and not a 4*. It should be noted that in earlier posts I told everyone to jump on Minn at -3 right away because the line would go up. Usually I am right on these (KU being an exception and obviously that one should have gone up).
All that being said, I do think Minn wins easily by double digits and that is why it is still a 4* game up to 7 points. Remember that we have only given out one 4* game and one 5* game this whole bowl season (both winners) so obviously it is still a very strong play at -6 (just not as strong as -3 being a 5*).
we're in big trouble
Fuckin Minn can't stop Vir??? I knew they didn't have a great defense, but they made Haeggens look like Peyton Manning...That was painful to watch.
My apologies on that one...just brutal. I really like the way MInn was playing, but they seemed to get a little too conservative in their playcalling...pathetic. Well, let's get it back.
Minnesota had NO D at all.
Ohio St over ND Dame 5*'s
Write it down....
Prologic
Ouch that hurt. Got cleaned out on that one. Let's get this back now guys.
Trev
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