When all signs point in one direction...

Go the other way. By looking purely at the numbers, yes Louisville should cover this game. They have beat better teams by more than 22 at home consistently this year. But, they will not do so tonight. First, Louisville might be without the services of RB Bush who injured his ankle in last week's win over Pitt. He is questionable right now and even if he does play it will be at 75%. Louisville's offense is so explosive because they are maybe the best in the country at play action off of the threat of Bush. With him being less or no factor in this game, it severely hampers them. Plus, Rutgers is not a bad team. They are 6-3 (3-0 on the road) and have played some formidable opponents. They lost to a very good W. Virginia team by 13. They were drilling Pitt until a late Pitt run made the score look closer than the actual game.

Another thing to mention is that there is no such thing as a perfect game that the public all see and bet correctly. But this appears to be that game. One site has as high as 84% of the public on Louisville. There is always something fishy about these "too good to be true" games and tonight is one of them. Sometimes you have to go with your gut...and mine says Rutgers covers tonight as Louisville will only win by 14.

Make no mistake about it. Louisville will win this game. However, they will not cover the 22. In fact, wait as long as you can before betting this one as the line keeps going up because the public is all over Louisville tonight.