Pilot Picks

OPENING NIGHT!!! -- 8/28/08

2008-08-28T16:44:00.002-04:00

Well, it's finally here...time for the "real" beginning of football season (pre-season NFL doesn't count). Tonight, there are a bevy of games and we have a select few for which to wager on.

Oregon State -3 (**)
Take the Beavers -3 against Stanford this evening. This is just simply a case of one team being MUCH better than the other team. Oregon State has beaten Stanford 6 of the past 7 meetings, including many a**-kickings. Stanford got lots of pub for beating USC and Cal, but they also lost to Notre Dame, Washington State, and Washington among others (including a 23-6 drubbing by Oregon State). Not much has changed. Stanford has no offense and will struggle to get more than 13 points as Oregon state wins by double digits.

Miami (OH) -3 (**)
I also like the RedHawks -3 at home against Vandy. Vandy is the bottom dweller of the SEC, while Miami is probably the best team in the MAC this season. The home crowd will be juiced and ready to beat a team from the mighty SEC. Miami's defense will keep the sketchy Vandy offense in check, while scoring just enough to win and cover this spread. There is a reason that a MAC team is favored by 3 over a SEC team in week one...that reason is that they are the better team.

Check back tomorrow as we might have some picks up for Friday's games, and will release our slate of Saturday games tomorrow as well. Good Luck!

Pilot Picks Returns August 28, 2008!

2008-08-24T16:28:00.001-04:00

The Battle for Michigan

2007-11-06T17:43:00.000-05:00

Central Michigan is simply a different team when it plays within the MAC. They have won 6 straight conference games and 11 out of 12 (even while getting blasted outside of conference). The same has held true this year as they are 4-0 in the MAC (with 4 easy wins) while getting destroyed outside of the conference. Western Michigan is reeling after its embarrassing 17-2 loss to lowly Eastern Michigan (how many directional schools does this state have???) and I don't think they will turn it around against a hot C. Mich team with the savvy senior QB. This is a rivalry game so you can throw out the records to an extent, but this Central Michigan team is much more talented and Lefevour will not lose to this rival in his senior year.

Central Michigan -3 (**)

Pilot Picks Returns Tonight (11/6/07)

2007-11-06T11:11:00.001-05:00

HOKIES

2007-10-24T22:42:00.001-04:00

va tech is 12-4 when playing on thursday and 15 -5 against conference opponents. hokies stout d is probably a little better than that of notre dame or umass. glennon looked great two weeks ago against duke should he get the start. a well rested va tech team will be ready to roll tomorrow night in front of a packed lane stadium.

VA TECH -3 (**)

UCLA?

2007-10-20T11:49:00.000-04:00

why are the bruins only getting 2 points at home against a team that was on the verge of becoming number one last week? for a team that has had a couple of major letdowns (banged up utah blowing them out, losing to notre dame) this number should be closer to 6 or 7. cal will be looking to bounce back after last week, especially in a hated instate rivalry game.

CAL -2(**)
OVER 55 (***)

5 Star Game Goes Today!!!

2007-10-19T23:55:00.001-04:00

No reason to beat around the bush (that's what she said), here is the first 5* game of the year:

Nevada -7
Everything in this game smells of an absolute blowout. Nevada got a break when its starting quarterback got hurt and the dual threat backup had to come in. What did he do in his first start against the best defense in the conference, on the road? Only had over 400 yards of total offense in leading Nevada to a close loss at Boise 69-67. Even without their new threat, Nevada has been damn near unstopable on offense, they had over 600 yards of offense the weak before against Fresno. Oh, and Utah State is 98th in total defense in the country. True, Nevada's defense is not exactly the steel curtain, but it doesn't have to be considering Utah State has the 119th rated offense in the country. Here is what it comes down to...Nevada will score on 80% of its possessions and Utah State will NOT be able to keep up. There is a reason Utah State hasn't won since October 7, 2006 and has lost 17 of their last 18 games. Oh, and last year, Nevada beat Utah State 42-0, holding Utah State to 207 total yards. This game will be an absolute laugher by the 3rd quarter. Nevada wins this game by 31 points!!!

Nevada -7 (*****)

Other games of note:
Missouri -3 (***)
Oklahoma State -2 (***)
Houston -13 (***)
Michigan State +18.5 (**)

Keep Scoring

2007-10-19T17:12:00.000-04:00

tonight i like Louisville/UCONN over 59.5. the huskies may have the nation's no. 8 passing defense but i'm pretty sure virginia, akron, pitt, temple, etc... dont throw it like brian brohm and the boys. at the same time they've been putting up enough pts (33 ppg) to make me think they'll be able to score on the cardinals terrible defense.

UCONN/LOUISVILLE OVER 59.5(**)

Thursday Football and the Upcoming Weekend (Featuring our first 5* Game of the Year)

2007-10-17T17:19:00.000-04:00

Thursday night has become quite the showcase for the Big East the past couple years. This week, we get S. Florida at Rutgers. Must say that S. Florida is the team to take in this matchup. This game boils down to one simple truth...Rutgers is not that good. Rutgers has played 2 decent (not great...decent) teams this year and lost to them both...at home. First, Maryland beat them by 10 and then Cinncinnati beat them by 5. Sure, Rutgers will beat up on Navy and Buffalo, but it is a bit harder when you go up against the big boys. And S. Florida is definitely one of the big boys. S. Florida has jumped to #2 in the rankings (and BCS), because of their utter dominance of their schedule so far (including wins over W.Vir and at Auburn). S. Florida has won 8 straight games with their closest victory being the 3 point win at Auburn. Trust me, winning at Rutgers is a LOT easier than winning at Auburn. S. Florida hasn't allowed a 100 yard rusher in 14 games (including last weeks domination of UCF's Kevin Smith, the leader in rushing yards per game, who only got 55). Rice is Rutgers best weapon, but he will not get a chance. S. Florida by 10 in this one.

S. Florida -2 (**)

***Also, we will be releasing our first 5* game of the year this Saturday...get ready to make some cash!!!

This just in...Atlanta sucks

2007-10-15T14:03:00.000-04:00

Coming off a solid weekend from Murdoch, I will be offering up tonight's matchup. Atlanta is a team that is not good...yet, has played a bit better than people realize. However, the Giants are their worst possible matchup tonight. The Falcons have lost both their bookends on their offensive line (both left and right tackles) and are starting two undrafted rookies. Ouch. This is normally bad news for any team, but when their first assignment is protecting Harrington/Leftwich (both horribly unmobile) from Strahan (NFL career leader in sacks) and Umenyiora (Giants record 6 sacks last game), this goes from bad to nightmare. The G-Men sacked Mcnabb 12 times last time out and are licking their chops tonight. Oh, and the Giants have Brandon Jacobs back and, don't look now, but Eli is starting to look like an average NFL QB. The Giants are a completely different team after the second week of the year (perhaps thanks to Tiki Barber's ridiculous comments) and seem to be playing with something to prove. I like the Giants BIG in this game...the line should be double digits.

N.Y. Giants -4 (***)

RIGHT TEAM FAVORED

2007-10-14T11:15:00.000-04:00

that t rucker td was close, but we'll take it. that game was much closer even than the 10 pts, and if pig brown doesnt drop that pick in the endzone with the tigers up 1 in the 4th i think mizzou might have had a chance to win outright. and thanks again greg robinson for reminding us all that even if you're up 14-0, and getting 17, you're still not going to cover. the university of syracuse doesnt deserve that kind of incompetence.

today i like the patriots laying the 5.5 at dallas. sure last week may have been a bit of a sandwich game for dallas, and they are definitely better than they played on monday, but the patriots are simply the better team. new england has one of the best teams of the last 20 years, and ever since the spygate scandal have been looking to run it up on anyone and everyone. the pats have too much offense here and dallas wont be able to keep up.

NEW ENGLAND -5.5 (**)

SYRACUSE SUCKS

2007-10-13T08:29:00.001-04:00

no doubter last night on hawaii, nice tip by dr. moonlight on that one. dont know if the birdman is going to be able to post today but i have a couple games to look at.

this line started out at 9.5 and has gone all the way up to 12.5 at some places. i just dont see it. missouri may not win outright tonight, but a they are starting to believe, and if you were averaging about 80 ypg more than the sooners you would too. oklahoma has blown out some bad teams and their big win has been over traditional rival texas. mizzou beat a very good illinois team on a neutral sight and demolished nebraska last week in prime time. look for the tigers to be jacked up tonight an come out firing.

MIZZOU + 12.5 (****)

2. syracuse sucks. sure they had that win over louisville, but other than that they are 0-5 (and 0-5 ats). this is looking more and more like the typical greg robinson coached team that gets blown out early and often (only 1 loss has been by less than 3 TDs) and then quits. rutgers wont find a better place in the country to get right after a couple losses than the carrier dome.

RUTGERS -17 (***)

finally a couple other games you may like - VA TECH -14 (*), LOUISVILLE +10 (*) WISCONSIN +7 (**).

BLACK and GREEN

2007-10-12T16:58:00.001-04:00

something has to give tonight. hawaii has hit the over 15-4 against conf opponents over the last three years. over that same time they're hitting 9-1 of their october overs. on the other hand, san jose state is 17-1 UNDER against conf opponents over the last three years. something's gotta give.

i have seen a lot of hawaii talk about this being their chance to impress the nation and show off how good they really are. look for the rainbows to score early and often.

OVER 68 (**)

WED NCAAF

2007-10-10T13:49:00.000-04:00

i guess the big question tonight is which pitt shows up, the one that played close at michigan state or the one that got blown out by uconn at home. pitt has been giving up a lot of easy points off turnovers as of late (6 turnovers in their last two) and their ability to win the game depends on holding onto the ball. their defense has been decent, and should be able to slow down navy's vaunted running attack. i think for a big tv game their top 10 d will be jacked up and ready to play tonight. on the other side of the ball pitt has had problems scoring, but i dont think this will be the case against a navy d that has been hemorrhaging points to bad teams all season . navy is 1-4 ats this year, while pitt has been putting together a 7-2 streak as a home fav. this also could be the traditional letdown game navy has following air force (1-6-1 ATS) .i hate taking wannstadt but i guess sometimes you dont have a choice.

PITT -4 (**)
UNDER 53.5 (*)

MNF

2007-10-08T18:10:00.000-04:00

tonight i like the cowboys laying the 10 on the road at buffalo. dallas is 4-0 ATS and the bills offensive struggles (10.3 ppg) have lead them to a 1-3 SU record. i think the bills are better than people give them credit for, but dallas has too much offensive firepower for buffalo's lackluster O to match.

DALLAS -10 (**)

Sunday Funday

2007-10-07T11:04:00.000-04:00

Well, didn't stay as hot as we would have liked (can't believe some of the games yesterday)...but, we will be getting back on track today.

First up, take the Chiefs +2 at home against Jacksonville. The Chiefs are 14-3 in the past 2 years at home and have covered 10 of their last 11 games they were getting points at home. Jacksonville is not that good and Gerrard will be rattled by the drunks at Arrowhead. Chiefs win this game (and therefore cover).

Chiefs +2 (**)

Next, I like Green Bay tonight -3 against Chicago. I don't get this line and that is my only concern. Green Bay is BACK as they have a stout defense and an offense that just does enough. Chicago is bad...really bad. Their defense is missing too many starters to count and they are starting Brian Greise (not Bob) as their QB. Has he done anything (besides suck) since Michigan won the National Title in 1997? Also, Chicago has no running game and their receivers drop the balls that do actually get to them. GB should have no trouble in this one.

Green Bay -3 (***)

***Ghetto Dope's game of the day is Arizona -3 at St. Louis. According to him, St. Louis' offense is shit (especially now that they have benched Bulger) and Zona is playing well with their 2 QB system. Ghetto Dope see's not problem with Zona winning in the Lou (shitty home fans too).

Saturday Picks (Let's keep the hot streak going!)

2007-10-05T21:33:00.000-04:00

Well, you can't ask for much more than a 5-0 weekday run...which is exactly what we did this week. Here's to hoping we can keep it going through the weekend:

First up, my biggest play of the day is Wyoming -3 at home against TCU. Whoever made this line apparently hasn't watched these two teams play this season. Their roles have reversed with Wyoming becoming the best defense in the conference (and one of the best in the country) and TCU being a mediocre with an absolutely putrid offense. Further, TCU has played 2 road games and lost both (to Texas and Air Force) while Wyoming has played 2 home games and won both by an average of 17 points (including a 23-3 drubbing of Virginia (which looks to be a pretty damn good team now). Now, TCU's starting QB has a deep thigh bruise which only further limits their terrible offense. Wyoming will be jacked for this game as it signifies the end of TCU's run as the dominant team in this conference. Wyoming BIG at home.

Wyoming -3 (****)

Next up, I like Arizona State -9 at Washington State. Ari St. is good...real good and they are just not getting the respect they deserve. There is no way they should only be favored by 9 in this game. They haven't scored less than 33 points in any game this season AND they have the number 6 scoring defense in the country. They are winning their games by an average of 26 points. Wash St. , on the other hand, has lost 2 straight Pac 10 games by 4 TD's including a horrible showing at Arizona last week. Also, just to make certain that Ari St. isn't looking past this game, Wash St.'s coach has been telling the media that Arizona is better than Ari St and that is the reason they will be more competitive this week. Bad move on a coach like Erickson who has no problem running up the score.

Arizona State -9 (***)

Finally, I like Arkansas State -2 at UL Monroe. Ark St is 2-2 (their losses are at Tex and at Tenn) and a solid team that can run and pass very effectively. UL Monroe is terrible...they can't stop the run at all and have gotten drilled in all 4 of their games this season. Also, UL Monroe can only run the ball, but they are going against the best run defense in the Sun Belt. Some things are made too complicated. Ark St is the best team in the Sun Belt and they are playing a team that is shaping up as the doormat. 2 points is nothing in this game. They should win this in a walk.

Arkansas State -2 (***)

SIXTH MAN'S PICKS
As stated earlier in the week, the 6th Man LOVES the following games:
Missouri -6
Kansas State -3
Tex A&M -6

Friday Night is Alright...for gambling

2007-10-05T15:15:00.000-04:00

Lot's of pressure on tonight's game as we look to go 5-0 on the Week heading into the weekend. Must say, that I would prefer it was a game I had a stronger opinion about. Oh well, I like it enough to bet it...and that is exactly what I am going to do.

Tonight we have two underachieving teams as Louisville is 3-2 (1-3 ATS) and Utah is 2-3 (1-4 ATS). Utah is getting some players back from injury and has the 18th ranked pass defense in the nation, while there just seems to be something wrong with Louisville. I can't get over their home loss to the Cuse and, before that, only beating Middle Tenn State by 16 at home. Their defense is so bad that any time they are giving more than 2 TD's, they had better be playing a very bad team...which Utah (while underachieving) is not. Oh, and Louisville has historically struggled against Mountain West teams (0-2 against Utah, 1-2 against Colorado State, and 1-3 versus TCU and Wyoming). I just can't give more than two TD's with Louisville...not this year.

Utah +15 (*)

Thursday Night Football--The Battle for SEC East Dominance

2007-10-04T14:32:00.001-04:00

Pilot Picks is looking to stay hot with tonight's big SEC East matchup.

Tonight the Ol' Ball Coach looks to take a step forward in his pursuit of a SEC East title at South Carolina ("Let's prove Lee Corso wrong" faces a big test tonight). I think they take that step. Am I the only one who is not that impressed with Kentucky this year? Yes, they beat a vastly overrated Louisville team that has NO defense and won at Arkansas, another highly overrated team (and, even then, Arkansas had that game in control until a couple bone-headed mistakes cost them). South Carolina has won at Georgia and also beat Miss St. by 17 at home last week. Their only loss is by 12 at LSU...and that game could have been much different if not for the fake FG TD by LSU. S. Carolina has the number 1 rated pass defense and Kentucky can't stop the run...Let's see, Kentucky likes to pass and S. Car. has a power running game that opens up the pass. Kentucky just isn't ready for this primetime matchup on national TV at a hostile environment. I see S. Carolina winning this one with defense and methodical TD drives. This game might be close at half, but S. Carolina will wear out Kentucky's weak defense and pull away in the 4th quarter.

South Carolina -3 (**)
(Buying the hook)

Wednesday NCAAF

2007-10-03T16:17:00.000-04:00

love that we have the midweek games back for every night of the week. unfortunately today's game is pretty garbage, Southern Miss and Rice. not really a whole lot of indepth thought here, just wondering if Southern Miss is good enough to beat anyone by 3 TDs. i guess it depends on which rice team shows up, the normal, horrible rice, or the rice squad that made improvements last year. southern miss has some qb issues so, if you need to bet it tonight take the points.

Rice +21.5 (*)

Tuesday Football and Sixth Man's Early Reads (including his favorite game of the year so far)

2007-10-02T11:00:00.000-04:00

Fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice, shame on me. I was on the wrong end of an "emotional" game years ago when I backed TCU at SJS when SJS was honoring their special teams player that had his leg amputated b/c of an infection he got after an on-field injury. SJS, as a big underdog, won outright. Tonight, the same sort of situation is happening with Memphis. Seldom-used, but much-loved Memphis player, Taylor Bradford, was shot and killed Sunday night. The players voted to play the game despite the killing and win in honor of Bradford. I for one would never bet against a team playing for a falling teamate (again); and it also helps that Memphis is only a 2 1/2 point favorite over a very bad Marshall team that hasnt won on the road in quite some time (and is also winless on the year so far). Memphis is the better team and MUCH more motivated. This game will be a rout.

Memphis -2 1/2 (***)

Sixth Man's Early Reads
The Sixth Man, in his Big 12 betting dominance, has an early read on 3 Big 12 games this weekend...one of them is his favorite game of the year so far:

Missouri -6 1/2 (6th Man's Favorite Game of the Year--so far)
K-State -3
Tex A&M -5 1/2

MNF

2007-10-01T15:19:00.000-04:00

analysis to come later this afternoon but here is the pick.

NE -7(**) [buy the hook]

Sunday Quick Hitters

2007-09-30T11:56:00.001-04:00

No analysis for me today, but here are the games:

Ari +6 (**) -- Pitt is overvalued here...they aren't that good.
Dal -13 (**) -- The Rams are horrible, Jackson is out, and Bulger is taking hella painkillers for his broken ribs.

THE SIXTH MAN'S PICKS:
Mia -4
Det +3

***This just in, Ghetto Dope LOVES the Packers -1 at Minn.

Saturday Part II

2007-09-29T10:11:00.000-04:00

today i like the sooners to go on the road and murder the helpless colorado buffaloes. hawkins hasnt really gotten it done in boulder like a lot of people thought he would, and their offense scored a combined 20 points against arizona state and florida state.the sooners have been blowing teams out this year, averaging 61 pts a game and only allowing 11. sure the texas game is next week, but i think that tulsa is probably better than colorado and over the last three years the sooners have had no problems as a road favorite (8-2 ATS).

OKLAHOMA - 23 (**)

Birdman's Saturday

2007-09-29T10:10:00.000-04:00

I assume that Murdoch will be posting some winners as well, but here are my thoughts as well as The Sixth Man's Favorite NCAA and NFL games.

My favorite game of the day is New Mexico +4 at home against BYU. The Lobos are TOUGH at home and BYU is a bit sketchy on the road. NM lost their opening game at UTEP, but have rattled off 3 solid victories including a road win at Arizona. BYU is 2-2 on the year with their 2 losses coming on the road at Tulsa and at UCLA. The Lobos should have the home crowd behind them and be able to move the ball at ease on the porous BYU defense. BYU, on the other hand, will find the going tough against a stout NM defense.

New Mexico +4 (***)

I also like UConn -16 against Akron. Akron is bad...really bad (their record does not even come close to being indicative of how bad they are). THey have no offense at all and are putrid on the road. UConn, on the other hand, has an explosive offense. They are 4-0 and beat 3 of those opponents by more than 20 points (2 of those on the road). Akron can't keep up in this one.

UConn -16 (**)

Sixth Man's Selections:
The Sixth man LOVES the following 2 games:
NCAA: Nevada -3 (buy the 1/2 point)
NFL: Detroit +3

As he is hitting at about 75% so far on his picks on this site, you might want to go with him.

FRIDAY NIGHT WARNING

2007-09-28T17:51:00.001-04:00

as any regular of pilotpicks knows the birdman and i have been on the mountaineer bandwagon for the last three years. ever since white and slaton starting getting quality playing time three years ago, and wvu rattled off 8 straight ATS i've been hooked. so i'm a homer now and this is your warning.

well this year they've run up 4 straight ATS & SU (my favorite being noel devine's late TD to cover against marshall) and tonight will be playing with a little extra motivation.

but first, an apology. i saw the birdman last friday and we started talking about saturday's games. i told him i was leaning ECU. i guess i must have been drunk because I cant think of any other explanation. i woke up saturday morning with the realization that the mountaineers were going to steamroll ECU but by the time i talked with him he had already bet and posted ECU. i took WVU anyways. so sorry (but in all fairness he screwed me last night when I took Ark State at -4.5 so i guess we're even).

the mountaineers lost last year against the bulls and this year will be looking for a little revenge. wv's d looks like it is returning to form, but i havent seen enough out of usf's weak link O to make me believe that they'll be able to score enough to stay within the number. i think coach rod learned his lesson last year and look for wv to throw the ball a little more than normal in the first half. in the second they'll do what they do; run the ball down team's throats and score at will.

WVU -6.5(**)

Saturday, Part 1 (9/29)

2007-09-28T17:03:00.001-04:00

Saturday picks

2007-09-28T10:03:00.001-04:00

The first batch of Saturday picks will be posted early Friday afternoon today to hopefully avoid the unavoidable line movement. Dr. Bob already fucked up a couple lines. Can anyone explain to me why his picks move lines? He isnt' that good.

Arkansas State v. Memphis

2007-09-27T14:20:00.001-04:00

Let's get one thing straight, I LOVE betting Ark St. when they are at home. For some reason, the Indians seem to cover quite consistently when I do. And when they are only giving 4 to a bad Memphis team...more the better. Ark State destroyed SMU in their only home game of the year and played TX and Tenn tight on the road in their other two games. Memphis, on the other hand is terrible, and just got drilled at UCF. Ark St's balanced attack will score at will on theTigers weak, weak defense. Take the Indians, watch "The Office" (or Grey's Anatomy if that's your thing) and don't even worry about the game tonight (it's not on TV anyway) b/c this one's in the bag.

Arkansas State -4 (**)

MNF

2007-09-24T16:04:00.000-04:00

following up the birdman's nice wins on saturday tonight the obvious choices is TENN and the points on the road at new orleans. sure they were america's team last year, but this year they just arent getting it done and look like the might be reverting to their previous 3-13 form. the titans on the other hand have the most under rated coach in the nfl and a quarterback who just wins football games. not to mention they've covered 11 of their last 12. and new orleans is 1-6 ATS following a loss to a division rival.

TENN +4.5 (**)

Saturday -- Part 1 (9/22/07)

2007-09-22T08:14:00.000-04:00

Not sure about Murdoch's status for posting as he is a busy man this weekend (i.e. he got engaged), although he did give me a winner on OU last night (I will admit I was skeptical). But, hopefully I can continue our good Saturday luck with three early games:

First up, take East Carolina +24 against West Virginia. I know it is hard to bet against W.V. this season (especially with their late game covering ability), but this EC team just seems to know how to slow down WV's attack. EC has held WV to under 200 yards rushing 2 years in a row (losing 27-10 and 20-15 when they were getting 21 and 24 points respectively). WV is due for a letdown...this is the week.

East Carolina +24 (**)

Next, take Houston -6 1/2 at home against Colorado State. This Houston team is loaded on offense as was shown again last week in their rout (and they only scored 3 points in the second half b/c they took their foot off teh pedal). Colorado State has lost 9 games in a row (5 on the road by an average of 11 points) and now they are only getting 6 1/2 against one of the nations most explosive attacks? Ridiculous. Houston BIG.

Houston -6 1/2 (***)

Finally, I have my third 4* game of the year (1-1 b/c Virginia sucks). BYU will ROLL Air Force this Sat. There are a lot of reasons that this line is only 11...but, none of them hold any water. AF is getting a lot of credit for beating TCU and staying undefeated even though they were absolutely dominated in that game and TCU was still not recovered from Texas. BYU is undervalued b/c they have lost 2 straight (both on road) even though they outgained both by 300 yards. In contrast, AF has been outgained by 300 yards in their last two wins. And lets not forget that BYU has dominated the last 3 meetings winning by an average of 19 points (including hanging 63 on AF in the last game at BYU). Simple facts: BYU is the better team, they are at home, angry over their last two road losses, and playing an overvalued team. Nuff said.

BYU -11 (****)

Thursday Night

2007-09-20T17:26:00.000-04:00

Me and Murdoch discussed tonight's game and came to the same conclusion: Miami sucks and this line is based upon the misconception that the Hurricanes don't suck. Tex A&M hasn't played anyone this season, but Miami has (and got beat by 40 by OU in that game). In Miami's other two games, they had ugly wins against terrible opponents. A&M should be able to pound away at the Canes D and wear them out in the second half. Wrong team favored in this one...take Tex A&M and watch them win this one outright.

Tex A&M +2 (**)

i am going to add to the birdman's pick the under tonight also. miami hasnt showed a whole lot of ability to score against florida a &m or oklahoma and i dont see why tonight should be any different. what happened to kyle wright? how did he go from being the next great miami qb (jim kelly, vinny t) to the 2nd coming of brock berlin? supposed to possibly get some heavy rains which will only encourage a & m to pound away.

UNDER 46 (*)

this also is a good opportunity to emply a "Murdoch Special" parlay which would be the underdog ml and the under.

monday night football

2007-09-17T17:22:00.000-04:00

followed a great saturday with a not so good sunday. get back on the horse tonight with the Under 39. the redskins d is for real, and philly has always been able to keep teams from scoring at home. i am not a believer that mcnabb is that good and see this number staying under that total.

UNDER 39 **

NFL Sunday Part 1

2007-09-16T11:59:00.000-04:00

Pilot Picks was a perfect 4-0 yesterday! Today, I am sticking with one game...worked out well yesterday.

Today I like New Orleans -4 at Tampa Bay. Tampa is terrible...not decent, ok, par, etc. Terrible. New Orleans is coming off a bad loss to Indy, and they should be ready to put it to the lowly Bucs. This one is over by half...F*ck the Bucks!

New Orleans -4 (***)

Now, as a special treat, I bring to you (straight from the Windy City) my friend and yours...Ghetto Dope. Ghetto Dope LOVES, yes LOVES Cinncinnati -6 1/2 at Cleveland. In his words, Cleveland is "bad...like worse than the Bucs". Ghetto Dope = word merchant. Bengals have too much fire power for the down-and-out Browns.

Bengals -6 1/2 (***)

Saturday Part II

2007-09-15T10:34:00.000-04:00

a couple of interesting games out there today.

i dont buy alabama as a legit threat this year, but i guess some people are. a soft schedule will definitely help saban and the tide get back this year. that said, beating western carolina and vandy does not prepare you for facing darren mcfadden and the well rested hogs coming off a 9/1 46-26 thrashing of troy. the tide will be better but they shouldnt be laying more than a fg to a good team, even at home.

ARKANSAS +3.5(***)

i know the 6th man has been hot lately and some times you just gotta tip your hat. cash it til it doesnt cash no more, as they say. with that in mind i also like the Mizzou/Western Michigan OVER. the bronco defense ranks 118th in nation in points allowed (49.5 ppg) and 108th in total defense (492 yds pg). look for chase daniel and the boys to score early and often this afternoon in front of a packed home opener.

MIZZOU/WESTERN MICHIGAN OVER 68(**)

finally, going against the birdman and my better judgement i'm going to take pitt and the points this morning. i understand wannstadt is a terrible coach, but i'm not going to completely buy into the hype that surrounded the spartans following their blowout win over uab. i think the fact that they struggled a little bit last week against bowling green shows that they might not be as good as some people think. pitt has had solid recruiting classes the last few years and it looks like it may be starting to pay off with a solid d.

PITT +12 (**)

Saturday -- Part I (9/15/07)

2007-09-14T23:12:00.000-04:00

Well, have to catch an early flight to the windy city tomorrow so this post will be short, but very informative. I am only giving one game today...but it's a good one:

Houston -14
Take the Cougars minus the points at Tulane. Oregon is looking legit aren't they? Well Houston actually outgained and outfirst-down'ed them at Eugene in week 1. However, losing the turnover battle 0-4 (not including getting a punt blocked) ended up in a loss. Here they come on two weeks rest ready to pounce on Tulane. Tulane, in their only game of the year got drilled by 21 by Miss St...yep, that one. Miss St. ran for over 230 yards on Tulane so imagine what Houston is going to do to them considering Hou ran for over 33o at Oregon. I see Oregon winning this game by AT LEAST 24 points. Lost my 4* last week...this week I will do no such thing.

HOUSTON -14 (****)

Remember, the Sixth Man's games were posted earlier in the week. You can find them below. Murdoch will be posting Part II soon.

FRIDAY NCAAF

2007-09-14T18:57:00.000-04:00

nice win by the mountaineers last night. shouldnt have even been that close but well take it. some number for tonight.

The Cowboys, who are 1-1, are 10-point favorites with a lot of positive trends on their side. In its last six games against teams with losing records, Oklahoma State is 5-1 against the spread and the Cowboys are 8-2 in their last 10 games against the spread when they are road favorites.Another bad sign for Troy? The Trojans are 1-4 against the spread in their last five home games.

and nick karellas loves orange.

OKLAHOMA STATE - 10 (**)

Thursday Part I

2007-09-13T17:40:00.000-04:00

tonight i like WV -16.5 (**) and the birdman and i both are liking TCU - 7(**). will try to do some write ups later this afternoon.

Sixth Man's Early Reads

2007-09-12T09:24:00.000-04:00

The Sixth Man is HOT and he has some early games for our faithful readers prior to the lines jumping tomorrow. He likes the following games:

Kansas -22
Georgia Tech -7
Notre Dame +8
Missouri -20
Kentucky +7

Monday Night Football

2007-09-10T09:36:00.001-04:00

Stupid computer wouldn't let me post Dallas -6.5 last night (although after Romo threw the pick and the Giants pulled within 3 with 4 minutes left I was happy it wouldn't let me post), so to make it up we give our opinions on both games tonight.

Nothing sexy about the picks tonight. I like both favorites. Cinncinnati is at home playing against Steve McNair (didn't look up his exact age, but he moves and throws like he is 55) and the Ravens. This Ravens team is old...just old. Cinncinnati on the other hand is explosive and looking to prove something after last season. Chad and TJ both catch at least one TD tonight as Palmer lights up the Ravens for 30+. Bengals BIG. As for the other game, I think SF turned the corner last season and both defense and offense. They are at home and are only favored by a FG...no way I can side with the Cardinals on this one. Leinart is probably too busy worrying about planning his superbowl party and lining up a babysitter to be focused here...oh, and the Cards suck. Until they prove they can win on the road, how can anyone take them here getting only 3? Can't do it.

Cinncinnati -2.5 (***)
San Francisco -3 (**)

NFL SUNDAY, PART I

2007-09-09T12:34:00.000-04:00

was hot with some totals last night and we'll stay that way with some of the early games.

i see with the emergence of jay cutler into a top tier qb this year, and jp also making strides with the bills the line is a litle too low. buffalo has always had a stout d at home, but not enough to keep this game under.

BUFFALO/DENVER OVER 37.5 (**)

since when did houston become a real nfl team? even with a new qb back there that terrible o line is not going to be able to keep him upright. kc is going to be bad this year also, but they havent fallen that far yet.

KANSAS CITY +3 (**)

Trent Green is just bad and I think everyone in Miami is going to realize that in the very near future. Washington seems to have made some strides on defense during the off season, and FedEx will be rocking for the home opener.

WASHINGTON -3 (**)

Saturday Part II

2007-09-08T17:18:00.000-04:00

a couple of games for tonight.

1. mizzou showed last week that their offense gives them the ability to score a ton of points, and that their defense gives their opponent the opportunity to also score a ton of points. until these numbers get too high, i'll keep playing the over.

MISSOURI/OLE MISS OVER 54.5 (**)

2. heard an intersting stat that i think i'll jump on also. south carolina/georgia gone under the last ten years in a row. i dont see why that trend wont continue.

SC/GEORGIA UNDER 45(**)

Saturday -- Part 1 (9/8/07)

2007-09-07T22:13:00.000-04:00

Here we go for week 2 of NCAA FB...last Sat - Mon we were 4-1 and this Sat will hopefully be even better. I will offer up a few and I believe Murdoch will post Part II soon.

My favorite game of the day (maybe month although it's early) is Virginia -17 at home against Duke. The past 4 years these two teams have played have gone like this: 2003 VA 27 - Duke 0; 2004 VA 37 - Duke 16; 2005 VA 38 - Duke 7; 2006 VA 37 - Duke 0. Last year's 37 point asskicking was at Duke and Virginia has 18 starters back from that team. VA is coming off a bad loss at Wyoming (against a very underrated WYO team) and should be looking to take it out on someone...Duke got beat by 31 at home against UConn. VA is the far superior team and will be looking to go 1-0 in ACC play. THis one is well over by half.

Virginia -17 (****)

Two other games I like are: Cal -14 at Col St and TCU +9 at Texas. Cal showed how fast and good they are in their game against Tenn last week and by all indications Tedford has made it his mission not to look past this game (b/c of the AZ game last year). Look for Cal to win this by 30.

As for TCU...they are 9-1 in their last 10 against Big 12 teams (kind of red-headed stepchild syndrome from being left out of the Big 12 when the other TX schools left) and I believe that they might just have the better team. Texas under Mack Brown has been a good/not great team (other than when Vince Young was there) and I look for them to move back into this category. TCU's defense is one of the country's best and will keep this one well within the number (if not win outright).

California -14 (**)
TCU +9 (**)

Sixth Man Selections
The sixth man loves two games this week: Missouri -6 and Baylor -6 1/2. He is the self-proclaimed "master of the Big 12" so I feel confident that these two picks will both cover with ease.

MU -6
Baylor -6 1/2

Thursday Part II

2007-09-06T15:53:00.000-04:00

adding to the birdman's earlier games tonight i also like Louisville/Middle Tennessee State Over 61.5. Last week Brohm and the Cardinals lit up an inferior Murray State team 73-10 with Kragthorpe showing a Petrinoesque willingness to run up the score. The Blue Raiders gave up 411 yards last week to Florida Atlantic and I see no reason why Louisville wont run up and down the field on them.

LOUISVILLE/MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE OVER 61.5 (***)

Thursday, September 6, 2007

2007-09-06T10:52:00.000-04:00

Well, it's opening day of the NFL and there are also 2 NCAA games on the tube tonight. First, let's handle the college slate.

Oregon State -3 (buying 1/2 point)
I like the Beavers to continue playing well and to beat Cinncinnati easily tonight. No gaudy stats necessary in this one. It is as simple as this: Ore St is a different league than the Bearcats right now and being on the road won't change anything. Ore St should win this by 2 touchdowns
OREGON STATE -3 (**)

New Orleans +6
I was all gunho on the Saints tonight as I LOVE their team this year and was prepared to make them a highly ranked play...then, the Sixth Man decided to throw some of his "beloved stats" at me in an attempt to sway my opinion. As he tells it, Indy is 16-2 ATS in their last 18 home games when favored by 7 points or less. I countered back with, "but don't most SuperBowl champs struggle against the spread in the year following their title?" Not so according to the Sixth Man as he informs me that the last 5 SuperBowl champs have won and covered their opening game the following season. Well, you know what...screw those stats. Sometimes you have to go with your gut and I just can't shake the feeling that New Orleans might win this game and definitely stay within 6 points. Not as highly rated as I first thought it would be, but since it is the first game of the NFL (and therefore I have to make a pick), I am going with New Orleans.

NEW ORLEANS +6 (*)

***We have several highly rated plays going on Saturday so check back (hopefully we can even beat our 7-1 Sat-Mon record).

Labor Day Monday

2007-09-03T12:26:00.000-04:00

after a nice start on saturday today i like tech to cover the number against smu. since when did smu become a decent football team? one year after nearly making a bowl game and now they're suddenly only getting 8 points? texas tech, despite losing a number of top recievers to graduation this year, will have a rare repeat starter at qb in graham harrell. tech may be down a little this year, and smu may have improved but let's not forget there's a reason the red raiders hammered smu 32-3 last year.

TEXAS TECH -8 (**)

LABOR DAY WEEKEND BLOWOUT!!!

2007-08-30T23:41:00.000-04:00

Well, Pilot Picks picked up where we left off, hitting 2 out of 3 on the first night (only losing the smallest bet...p.s. the Cyclones suck). Well, the birdman has some Weekend winners for you.

Friday:
It's true, me and Murdoch like Navy -20.5 and Syracuse +3.5 (both *) on Friday night. Navy is 47-17 in road games ATS over since 1992, including 8-1 over the past 3 years. Oh yea, and Temple really, really sucks. As for the 'Cuse, I hate Greg Robinson as much as the next guy, but how can you go with Ty and Washington traveling 3,000 miles to play in the Carrier Dome...I mean, how can you give points on the road with Washington EVER...let alone on the first game of the year after traveling 3,000 miles.

Navy -20.5 (*)
Syracuse +3.5 (*)

Saturday:
Well, this is what we have all been waiting for...the first full day of college football. Is there a better time of the year? Christmas? No, you have to spend your money on others. New Years? No, the only thing good about it is New Years Day when more bowl games are played. Well, it's settled, this is the greatest time of the year. And why not make money during the best time of the year? Exactly, there is no reason why not. Well, the birdman has 4 games for you on this glorious Saturday. Ignore them at your own risk.

Missouri -4.5
Missouri's offense will be nearly unstoppable this season with All-Big 12 players up and down the lineup. Chase Daniel will have plenty of options with two NFL TE's and quality other receivers and Tony "TD" Temple in the backfield. Yes, we hear about how good Illiois is going to be based on Zook's recruiting class. Well, here's a news flash for you: Illinois won 2 games last year and Zook couldn't win consistently at Florida. He doesn't have Florida talent at Illinois and his "athletic" QB won't get it done against MU on a neutral field.
MU -4.5 (***)

Georgia Tech +2
This is a line I don't get. GT dominated the game last year (although they came out on the short end of the stick) and they have lots of returning talent, while ND lost a TON. Yes, they lost Calvin Johnson, but don't forget they lost Reggie Ball too. That has to cancel itself out right? Oh, and GT's blitzing defense creates lots of problems for first year starting QB's, especially those that have no one to throw the ball to. GT wins this game EASY.
G.T. +2 (**)

Houston +16
The Cougars return 15 players from a 10 win team and will stay within the number against an overhyped Oregon team that dropped its last 4 last season. Oregon might win, but sure as hell it won't be by 3 scores.
Hou +16 (**)

Akron -5.5
So Akron has a down year last season and suddenly they are only favored by 5.5 over Army? Wow, that is a bad line. The Zips will dominate this game as they are BY FAR the better team. This is a solid MAC squad v. the worst armed forces squad in the nation...I love our troups as much as the next guy, but something has to give (and I think it will be Army's defense). Akron BIG!!
Akron -5.5 (**)

UPDATE
The Sixth Man did not like the look of his pick so he demanded that I change the font color and inform everyone that he is the best capper around. Done and done.

***The Sixth Man LOVES Mich State -21 at home against UAB. According to him, UAB is in shambles and Mich State is out to prove something. We will see, I am just happy the Sixth Man is showing signs of life again.

Mich St. (**)--Sixth Man Selection

NCAA THURSDAY ACTION

2007-08-29T20:20:00.000-04:00

well gentlemen, it's that time of the year again. nothing better than summer turning into fall and starting off the season with a couple of winners.

LSU will be an absolute beast this year with glenn dorsey leading a defense that will be heavy on returning starters and nfl talent. matt flynn lit up miami a few years ago in a spot start, and as a 5th year senior he knows the offense. miss state hasnt played within 30 of lsu in the last few years and this time it will be no different.

LSU -18 (**)

i for one have not seen enough out of kent state to think that they can go into a big 12 school, no matter how bad, and stay within a field goal.

ISU -3.5 (*)

the birdman and i both like navy and syracuse (ugh) for friday. i think he'll be posting his writeups then.

best of luck to everyone this year.

Early "Football"

2007-08-10T21:39:00.001-04:00

my boys at liverpool to win tomorrow -105. el nino make the difference.

PilotPicks Season Preview - Early Lines

2007-08-08T14:31:00.000-04:00

some early lines i am looking at with a one sentence thought.

iowa state -4. iowa state isnt good, kent is just bad
navy -21. trick offense versus bad team.
northern illinois +11. another down year for iowa? n.ill covers against big 10 teams, even without wolfe.
baylor + 21, eastern michigan +20. too may points!
texas -37.5. longhorns cover these spreads game one.

PilotPicks Season Preview - Part I

2007-08-03T16:41:00.000-04:00

In honor of the new PilotPicks layout we'll get going with a few things to think about as the season approaches.

- with kragthorpe replacing petrino at lousville, will the cardinals continue to be as willing to run it up on weaker opponents like bobby loves too? especially with considering kragthorpe moving to an offense that emphasizes short passes over stretching the field the first few weeks of underdogs/unders could be a smart bet.

- is sean glennon good enough for va tech to be a top 10 team? will brandon ore earn his preseason all acc spot with another monster season? can a loaded secondary and linebacking corps return va tech to the special teams/defensive touchdowns that beamer ball is known for?

-how bad are the chiefs going to be this year? first week line of KC/HOU under 39 is looking pretty good from here.

Pilot Picks to Return in Fall for Football

2007-07-10T15:49:00.000-04:00

Well, our heart wasn't really into betting baseball and let's face it, other than an occasional bet here or there, baseball betting is for the true degenerates (and we refuse to admit we have hit that point). However, don't fear because the birdman, Murdoch and the gang will be back for football season starting with week 1 of college football on Labor Day Weekend!!!

Our faithful followers know that football is the sport we excel at and we will be better than ever in 2007-2008!

Check back in late August (prior to any college football games being played) for the beggining of "the winning season."

Monday, April 16, 2007

2007-04-16T15:04:00.000-04:00

Two games today:

Cubs ML
Cardinals ML

April 14--Saturday

2007-04-14T00:42:00.000-04:00

Well, not the ideal start, but 3-3-1 isn't going to hurt our bankroll either. Maybe we got too excited and went with too many games...only time will tell. For Saturday, here are some of Pilot Picks favs:

Toronto -1.5--Chad Durbin is terrible, The Blue Jays lineup is really good, AJ Burnett has looked sharp (with some attitude), and the Tigers just don't look the same.

D-Backs ML--Arizona is tough at home and will avenge last night's loss with Livan on the hill.

Dodgers ML--Schmidt is dominant and the Padres can't hit. LA is tough and home and should scratch out enough runs to beat Peavy.

Baseball Season is underway...and Pilot Picks is BACK!!!

2007-04-13T16:28:00.000-04:00

We are opening up shop for baseball season this year as somewhat of a segway into football season (by far our most profitable time of year). After testing the waters (and our accounts) with some early season betting, we feel confident in our ability to advise our loyal readers on this wonderful summer pastime. Without further ado, on to the picks:

Since it is something of an opening day for us, we are handing out 7, yes 7, games for tonight. Obviously, most nights will feature less games (or none at all), but tonight is our gift to you.

Houston (ML)--Oswalt wins this game for the Astros.
Mets (-1.5)--The Nationals are a catastrophy of biblical proportions and the Mets are rolling.
Marlins (ML)--The DTrain is on track for another big season...Braves can't hit.
Dodgers (ML)--The Padres are overrated and Wells likely will eat way too much at the pre-game spread to be effective. Hopefully, he isn't hung over or we might be in for another perfect game.
Twins (-1.5)--I have two words: Johan...Metrodome.
Royals (Under 9)--KC & Baltimore are the two worst offenses in the American league...so bad they can't take advantage of the other's horrible pitching. Oh, and similar to how Newman doesn't work in the rain, the Royals don't hit lefties.
Marlins (Under 9)--See analysis above on Marlins.

Good to be back. Let's win some money.

Thursday, March 8, 2007 -- Tourney Time

2007-03-08T10:41:00.000-05:00

Three games for you today in what I believe will be the beginning of a very, very successful March:

Notre Dame -2
Texas Tech -11
Missouri -4

3/4/07

2007-03-04T11:19:00.000-05:00

Got 2 plays today:

Southern Illinois -2
The Saluki's (sic) will easily....repeat easily beat Creighton today in the MVC championship. This game is over by halftime.

Duke +10
Explain this line to me as NC is playing terrible lately. Their biggest rival coming in...a team they NEVER kill...and they are getting double digits??? Too many.

3/1/07

2007-03-01T17:23:00.000-05:00

Once again, got a handful of games tonight, coming off a great showing last night. There is limited analysis again tonight:

North Carolina -5 (***)
UNC is the much better team coming off a bad loss. Rumor has it Roy Williams has been killing these kids in practice because of the way they have been playing. Expect a blowout.

UCLA -1 (**)
UCLA will expose the Cougars tonight.

Drake +1 (**)
Drake advances out of the first round of the MVC Tournament with a win over a team they just beat a week ago...the same team that has only beat two teams in recent memory (Indiana State and Samford).

2/28/07

2007-02-28T18:07:00.000-05:00

I have four games for you tonight and hopefully, we will be going into Thursday on a 4 game winning streak. There is no analysis on these games tonight, just picks:

Villinova PK (**)
Vanderbilt +1 (**)
Auburn -2 (**)
Texas -2 (**)

Oh, what the hell, one bonus game: Duke -5 (*)

2/27/07

2007-02-27T18:28:00.001-05:00

No games today...check back tomorrow.

2/27/07

2007-02-27T18:28:00.000-05:00

No games today...check back tomorrow.

We're back!!! (2/26/07)

2007-02-26T15:06:00.000-05:00

Only one game for you tonight...take Georgetown -3 at Syracuse. I know this has the makings of a trap game with Gtown coming off a big "w" over Pitt and going into the Carrier Dome on Big Monday. But, I believe Gtown is just too hot for the Cuse right now. They have won 12 straight and in their last 18 lined games, Gtown is an astounding 15-1-2 ATS!!! How can you bet against a team this hot? Answer: you can't. The Cuse have put together a nice run, but the better team prevails tonight.

Georgetown -3 (**)

Valentines Day

2007-02-14T09:37:00.000-05:00

Not an ideal start to a great run last night...no excuses, but that was terrible. Well, I still feel solid about our handicapping and we have 4 games going tonight. Today is a no nonsense day. Just games. No commentary. Here they are:

Wichita State -1 (**)
Depaul -2 (**)
Duke +3 (**)
Washington -3 (**)

Hope these games cover any Valentines Day expenses you may have.

Tuesday, February 13, 2007 -- The beginning of the end...for the Sportsbooks.

2007-02-13T13:43:00.000-05:00

I can honestly say that I feel better about picking bball now than I have in over a year. I know that might seem a bit odd coming off a 0-1 night (heartbreaking 1 point non-cover in the WV v. G-town OVER), but you have to go with your gut...and right now, I am feeling it. In fact I was ready to play two games tonight and I received a call from the Sixth Man who was on the same two games. Tonight is only the beginning my friends:

First up, go with Florida State -2 at home against G-Tech. This is a game that too much analysis will do you more harm than good. FSU is 13-2 at home. GT is 0-6 on the road. FSU is coming off a bad loss (68-67) to BC, where they were outscored 8-0 over the final 1 1/2 minutes. They will regroup tonight in a matchup against a GT that has played well at home as of late, but still is yet to record a road victory. With the line being only one basket, this it almost too easy. Take the Seminoles and watch them sting the Jackets (yes, I am aware of how bad that was). FSU wins this one going away.

Florida State -2 (***)

Next up, take Kansas State +1 at Nebraska. K-State is surging right now. They have won 3 of their past 4 on the road (the only loss coming at Kansas...no shame in that considering KU was pissed about their home loss to K-State last season). But, before the KU loss, KState had won three straight on the road: at Missouri 85-81, at Iowa State 69-60, and at Texas 73-72...pretty impressive. Huggy has them playing Cincy bball, tough defense and opportunistic scoring. Nebraska is just not playing that well in Big 12 play, going 3-6. KState needs this game to help their bid for a bid for the NCAA tournament and they will get it.

Kansas State +1 (**)

Big Monday, 2/12/07

2007-02-12T14:06:00.000-05:00

Just to inform everyone, we are not giving up b/c we lost the Superbowl bet...just took some time to regroup and focus on BBall. With the help of The Sixth Man and Dr. Moonlight, Murdoch and I are ready to dive into hoops. Tonight marks our return:

Only one official play tonight. Take the OVER in the W. Virginia/Georgetown game tonight. Both of these teams are hot (with G-town winners of 8 straight and W. Vir winners of 5 out of 6, including Saturday's win over UCLA) and should have no trouble putting up 65+ points each. In fact, both teams have gone OVER in 3 of their past 4 games and 9 of the past 10 games in this series have gone over the listed total tonight. I just don't see how this game stays under 125. I forsee a final score of 72-68 G-Town...which would go well over 125.

W. Vir./G-Town OVER 125 (**)

Other games which are leans, not strong enough for official plays (just for reference):
W. Virginia +10
Austin Peay -10
W. Carolina -3

superbowl sunday!!

2007-02-04T11:47:00.000-05:00

i know that the birdman will be posting a little bit more indepth later on, but let me tell you first that i am on your CHICAGO BEARS today. the line has been moving between 6.5 and 7.5 which i dont understand. has no one seen the last few superbowls? these games are always close, and if this game does turn into a blowout it's not gonna be in the colts favor. for all the talk the last few weeks you'd think they'd have turned into the 85 bears in the playoffs. that, pilotpick readers, is not true. there defense did play two acceptable games against kc and baltimore. of course, in both those games the other team was basically running a high school offense. that and peyton hasnt exactly been on fire thru these three games either. and it's not at home. bears run the ball, get after peyton, cover, and win.

CHICAGO BEARS +7(***)
CHIGAGO BEARS ML (**)
OVER 47 (*)

Friday, 2/2/07

2007-02-02T14:16:00.000-05:00

Tough loss on the Dukies last night. McRoberts misses a layup as time expires in regulation and Duke goes the final 9 minutes of the game without a field goal...tough. Oh well, tonight there are 3 NBA games we are looking at.

Sixers -2
First up, I like the Sixers -2 at home against Golden State. The Warriors are not in good shape and are absolutely horrid on the road (4-17). The Sixers have been playing pretty well since the trade of Iverson and release of Webber, putting together their best stretch of the season (5-3). Just for kicks, here are a few trends: Warriors are 1-6 ATS in past 7 road games, and 1-7 ATS in past 8 games agaisnt the Eastern Conference. The Sixers are 6-1 in their last 7 Friday night games. Good enough for me.

Sixers -2 (**)

Lakers +3
Next, I like the Lakers getting 3 at Indiana. I am not sure if anyone is aware of this, but the alleged rapist is playing with a bit of a chip on his shoulder right now. He just put up 43 at Boston on Wednesday night and has been hinting to the media that it was only a sign of things to come. I see two blatent mismatches for Indiana that the Lakers will exploit. First, they have no one who can even pretend to guard the Mamba. Second, they have no answer for Odom. The Pacers are the worst shooting team in the NBA and they won't be able to keep up with Mamba and the Lakers. Wrong team favored in this one. The Lakers win this outright.

Lakers +3 (**)

Nets +3
Finally, I like the red hot Nets. We got what the "sixth man" likes to call 'line value' in this matchup. Prior to Wednesday, the Nets had covered 14 of 16 and the Magic had lost 8 of 9. So, of course, the Nets get hammered by Detriot and the Magic destroy the Bucks. Well, one game, a streak does not make (or something to that effect). The Magic got hot early, but are fading faster than a gold necklace bought off a "vendor" on the street. Howard is struggling mightely and they are without second-leading scorer, Mr. Glass...I mean Grant Hill. Don't look for VC to put up another 4-15 night, but do look for the Nets to extend their win streak over the Magic to 5.

Nets +3 (**)

Thursday, 2/1/07

2007-02-01T17:34:00.000-05:00

Well, hopefully we have all our technical difficulties behind us in time to post a couple winners in tonight's Bball matchups:

First, go with the Dukies -1 at Virginia. As Virginia's previous coach, Pete Gillen, would say, "Well, certainly Duke is Duke, they're on TV more than Leave it to Beaver reruns." What did that have to do with anything? Nothing at all...I just really like that line. But, in this matchup, we see if the Cavaliers are up to the challenge of stepping up to play with the "big boys". I say they aren't. Duke is hitting their stride after a slow start, having won their past 5 games (including 2-0 on the road). Virginia, to be fair, has won their past 7 games. But, this is Duke and I don't think Virginia is past the mental hurdle that is the Blue Devils. Duke has beaten them the past 9 matchups and the smallest margin of victory was 7. The last two times they played at Virginia, Duke won by 22 and 19. Duke is a better team, but more importantly, they are better in Virginia's minds as well.

Duke -1 (**)
(buying 1/2 point)

Next, I received a tip from "The Sixth Man" and he says it is rock solid. Take Chicago-loyola -2 at Cleveland State. Cle St. is really bad and they can't seem to beat Loyola. Loyola has won their last 10 matchups with Cleveland State (COVERING 9/10 in that span). Earlier in the season, Loyola beat Cleveland State by 11 at home...and that was without their leading scorer (averaging 17 per game). This should be a cakewalk.

Chicago-Loyola -2 (**)
(buying 1/2 point)

Saturdqy

2007-01-27T19:01:00.000-05:00

Well, we have been having some technical difficulties which have not allowed our posts to happen today...but don't worry too much b/c they are 3-2 right now. That being said, here are two Missouri Valley winners for tonight...rapid fire:

First, Take Evansville +1 at home against Wichita State. Evansville is a solid team who is on a streak, and the SHockers are really struggling. The SHockers will not win tonight.

Evansville +1 (**)

Next, go with Bradley +8 at Missouri State. This line is off...way off. Bradley is a better team than Missouri State and they are getting too many points.

Bradley +8 (**)

Saturday, January 27, 2007

2007-01-27T09:24:00.000-05:00

1-1 last night after a heartbreaking loss on the Nuggets. Utah was 6-6 from the line in the last 31 seconds to go on a very late 6-0 run and cover by one point. Wow, seems like when we lose, they are depressing. Oh well, on to college BBall. NOthing in the morning is of much interest, but check back in the noon hour (Central time) for the afternoon slate.

Let's get us some winners.

Friday, January 26, 2007

2007-01-26T17:19:00.000-05:00

After taking last night off (myself I only made one moneyline wager on Duke, which almost bit me in the ass), we are going to give 2 NBA games this evening:

Denver +4
Until this team loses with AI and Melo, I don't see how they can be getting this number. Utah had their torrid start, but have since player relatively mediocre. Denver looked like world beaters in their first game with AI and Melo in the starting lineup and although they came back down to earth a bit in the second game, they still won easily. I believe that Denver is the better team, with the better attitude right now (can't overlook the rapidly growing dissention between Kirilenko and the Jazz owner). The Nuggets have won and covered 5 straight and I think tonight it becomes 6.

Denver +4 (**)

Seattle -1
The Supersonics host the Timberwolves tonight in a matchup of very average teams. However, the Wolves just fired their headcoach and are 0-1 with the interim. The Supersonics lost on Tuesday at home to the surging (explained above) Nuggets, but aside from that game, the Sonics are 10-3 at home since December 1. The Wolves are on game 4 of a 5 game road trip and their weary legs/bodies will hurt an already bad road team (8-13). I look for Ray Allen to go off for at least 35 and for the Sonics to outgun the Wolves tonight.

Seattle -1 (**)

Wednesday, January 24, 2007

2007-01-24T10:02:00.000-05:00

We have won 8 of our last 9 picks, yet all people do is bitch about the one loss. I guess we will have to go on a Suns/Mavericks run to get a little support. Oh well, we have one game going tonight:

Texas -1
Texas is playing at Nebraska tonight and for some odd reason, the line is very low. Yes Nebraska is undefeated at home, but their biggest victory at home is against Colorado, the worst team in the Big 12. Texas has lost 3 of 4 road games but they are as follows: at Tenn 111-105 (OT); at Ok State 105-103 (OT); and at Nova 76-69. Nebraska does not even slightly resemble any of these three teams. Texas has lost 2 in a row and will not lose three straight. Nebraska's smoke and mirrors act at home ends tonight in a big way. Texas will ROLL!!

Texas -1 (***)
buying 1/2 point

Tuesday, January 23, 3007

2007-01-23T17:55:00.000-05:00

One college bball game tonight.

Take Boston College -2 at home against Florida State. BC got drilled last Saturday at Clemson, but they had won their past 9 going into that game and just didn't have it that day. FSU is a terrible road team...just flat terrible and now they have to go up against a pissed off BC team in a hostile arena. Not a good spot for them. BC rolls in this one.

Boston College -2 (**)
(buying 1/2 point)

Championship Sunday

2007-01-21T12:52:00.000-05:00

Only 2 more Sundays left in this football season...sad, but true. Today, there are two games with 3 point spreads that will both be much easier wins then many believe:

First, I have a confession. I am the only person who is not a Saints fan. They may be "America's team", but they sure as hell aren't mine...and I am not swayed by the love affair this country has for them. In case you can't tell, we are on the Bears today. We have a dome, finesse team going into Soldier Field in January. The Bears defense isn't what it was when Denny Green told us that they were who they thought they were. But, the Saints aren't exactly the 2000 Ravens. The Bears, and Sexy Rexy, will score at will on them. And i believe that the Bears defense will step up big today.

Bears -3 (**)

Next, go with Peyton Manning and the Colts. It's their time. They have won the past two games against the Pats and the "playoff drought" is over. Peyton has looked bad in their two wins, but today will be very different as he will have a HUGE day against the poor Pats D. No need for further explanation. The Colts are much better than the Pats and will get it done today in the RCA Dome.

Colts -3 (***)

NBA Friday -- 1/19/07

2007-01-18T23:20:00.000-05:00

Well, now that football is winding down and me and Murdoch have had some time to follow the NBA and NCAA (and by follow, I mean bet on many, many games obviously), we feel we are ready to start posting basketball picks. Last year, we were not as successful at bball as we would have liked, but this season will be different, much different. For one, we will only post games when there are games worth posting...not just to post picks. And this Friday, there is most definitely a game worth posting:

New Jersey -2
The Nets make the long trip to New York, who is playing a little better at home, but will not be able to pull it off Friday night against the New Jersey. The Nets have won 7 of 9 and and have won their past 6 games in New York against the Knicks. The Nets are starting to resemble the team that many analysts believed was one of the best in the East, while the Knicks are playing beyond their talent and capabilities the past handful of games. Well, look for that to end on Friday as the Nets will come to Madison Square Garden and come away with a double digit victory.

New Jersey -2 (***)

Sunday 1/14/07

2007-01-14T08:33:00.000-05:00

Looking to stay hot after yesterday's 2-0 result.

First, we like Seattle +9 against Chicago. How can Chicago be laying this number against anyone right now with Grossman as their quarterback??? I haven't seen a QB this shaky since Papke came in to take the snaps for the Fighting Armadillos after "Straight Arrow" Gennero benched Paul Blake for defying his play-calling. And let's not forget that Seattle went to the SuperBowl last season...what have the Bears done? My final reason is that the Bears defense isn't the same without Tommy Harris, Mike Brown and the gun-loving, appropriately nicknamed "Tank". Seattle stays within the number.

SEAHAWKS +9 (***)

For the afternoon game, a tough choice must be made...Do you go with the best team this season or the best team this decade, who is also the best postseason team of the decade? Personally, I go with the proven playoff winner. The Pats are 12-1 in the playoffs with Brady & Belichick and Belichick is also 7-2 against NFL MVP's; if anyone can find a way to stop (or at least contain) Tomlinson, it is Belichick. Phillip Rivers (a rookie QB going up against Belichick) hasn't looked good in weeks and "Martyball" always rears its ugly head come playoff time. Too much history to go any other way on this one. Oh, and finally, the line is 5 and you know what the Sixth Man thinks about a line of 5...the oddsmakers are begging you to take the favorite. The Pats are the pick.

Patriots +5 (**)

NFL Playoff Saturday

2007-01-12T21:21:00.000-05:00

I was about as impressed with Peyton Manning as the next guy last Saturday and I am fully aware that he struggles with the 3-4 defense more than any other defense. However, there is just something about this INDY v. Ravens game that doesn't feel right. Baltimore talks and talks and talks about how good they are and they are right about one thing...their defense is really good. But their offense is pedestrian at best and Steve McNair is terrible...yes, terrible. Jamal Lewis hasnt been the same since he became Nasty Nate's bitch in prison. All week the Ravens have been talking smack to Indy and talking about their pending SuperBowl victory. Peyton, on the other hand has been silent...too silent. Peyton has probably watched 15 hours of video per day on the Ravens and he is going to have a BIG day. Everyone is on the Ravens and that usually means that everyone is wrong. Indy will likely win this game outright, and they will certainly cover 4 points.

INDY +4 (**)

In the night game, Philli goes to "America's Team", aka the Saints, to play a game against a team that everyone is rooting for. This is the fairy-tale season for the Saints, and it also gives an argument to the conspiracy theorists that believe the NFL is fixed. But the NFL is not fixed and this fairy tale will end badly for Saints. I like the Eagles to go into the Dome and win. The Saints have a very good offense, but a poor defense. The Eagles have a balanced attack and a defense that schemes better than anyone besides maybe New England. This game will be settled by a field goal either way, but I believe it will be the Eagles who win it. Also, the Sixth Man told me today that when the bookmakers set a line at 5, they are begging you to take the favorite, but you should ALWAYS take the underdog (this is not to be confused with a 4 point spread which screams "favorite"). That being said, Take the Eagles.

Philli +4 (**)

National Championship Game

2007-01-08T19:17:00.000-05:00

No excuses and I am sure no one (besides my close associates) will believe me, but because of a glitch on this website, my picks for yesterday were not posted. And, of course, they were 3-0. Well, that being said, I like Florida tonight +7 1/2. Florida has a great defense...one of the fastest in the nation and they will not be blown out tonight. Urban Meyer is what those in the business refer to as a "genius"...hence, with over a month to prepare, I don't think the "genius" will lose this game by more than a TD. The dog has taken the money in 4 of the last 5 National Title games including Texas last year outright as a TD dog...see any similarities?

Florida +7 1/2 (***)

Saturday, January 6, 2007

2007-01-06T00:22:00.000-05:00

well after LSU rolled the domers...we only have 3 bowl games left, and one goes Sat:

I like Cinn -7 against W. Mich on Sat. Cinn is a better team that played much better competition
cinn played 5 ranked teams...W. Mich played 0. Cinn will have a new coach to impress and the spread offense to utilize. Cinn has too much firepower in this one (esp. withW. Mich's star RB suspended).

CINCINNATI -7 (**)

In the NFL I like the following:

CHIEFS +7 (**)
Too many points for LJ and the chiefs with INDY'S run D. And its time for the Chiefs and their 'us against the world' attitude to break the hearts of Colt fans instead of vice-versa. Its karma...just like Carson Daly preaches. Oh, and Peyton likes to suck in the playoffs.

SEATTLE -3 (**)
Seattle is at home, playing Dallas...a team that is playing really bad. I will take Hassleback and his experience AT HOME over Romo ON THE ROAD any day of the week...The crowd gets to Romo and Seattle covers.

LSU

2007-01-03T00:03:00.000-05:00

dr. moonglight may not like to admit it, but notre dame gets destroyed by good teams. look back at who they've played under the "resurgent" charlie weis era. not a whole lot of quality wins in there. ohio state killed them, michigan ripped them at home, usc destroyed them this year in la. their biggest claim to respectability is that they "almost" beat USC last year. congratulations. gary pinkel is "almost" not a horrible coach. the domers line wont be able to stand the pressure from the tigers up front and look for brady to bring that 'turnover prone' reputation up again in what is basically a road game for the irish.

LSU -8(**)

New Years Day II

2007-01-01T16:51:00.000-05:00

quick post before gametime, i hear the birdman is hot.

MICHIGAN -2 **)
OVER 46.5 (**)

New Years Day

2007-01-01T10:40:00.000-05:00

Murdoch might have a more substantial post, but for time purposes I have some quick hitters for today:

Tenn -4 (***)
They are the better team on both sides of the ball.

Auburn -2 (**)
This will be a lot like the Big 12 Championship...the Nebraska offense can't get going against a top notch defense.

Georgia Tech +10 (**)
Reggie Ball was the most overrated QB ever...his loss is GT's gain. And with Slaton uncertain (and if he plays, he will be less effective), I like GT to keep this game close.

New Years Eve...Part II

2006-12-31T15:16:00.000-05:00

For the afternoon NFL games and NCAA bowl pick, I will be giving simple analysis in an effort to get them posted quickly:

I like Indy -9 1/2 at home against the Dolphins. I don't care how bad the Colts run defense is...when you can put 9 guys in the box to stop Ronnie Brown (b/c Mia's QB is some guy named Lemon), you should be able to stop it. The COlts are playing for a playoff bye. I also think that the Colts are out to prove something today and will light up the overmatched Dolphins.

Colts -9 1/2 (**)

For my second pick, I am going with San Francisco +11 at Denver. If Denver wins, they are in...SF has nothing to play for. But...I just don't see the Broncos blowing out the 49ers in this one. Denver will be the team with all the pressure on them and they have had trouble stopping the run at times this year. SF will be playing loose and Gore should have a nice day. Also, don't forget that Cutler is a rookie, playing in what might be a "must" win, ala playoff game, and we don't know how he will react. Maybe he steps up...but maybe not.

49ers +11 (**)

For the Miami v. Nevada bowl game tonight, I like Miami -3 (buying 1/2 point). If Larry Coker was anything, he was a players coach. From all the reports I have heard, the players loved him and want him to go out on top. Also to be noted is the fact that Miami is VASTLY superior in every aspect of the game. They are so much bigger and faster than Nevada, even if they don't try, they should still kill them. I like Miami to dominate the line of scrimmage and not allow Nevada's Pistol offense to get going. Let me ask this one question...if the defense you are going up agaisnt is vastly faster than any defense they have faced all year, would you feel confident starting your running back 10 yards behind the line of scrimmage? Didn't think so.

Miami -3 (***)

New Years Eve

2006-12-31T11:42:00.000-05:00

Well, got back on track with a 2-0 sweep last night...and I kind of think I am going to go undefeated today. Here's to nothing:

First, take the Panthers -2 at New Orleans. The Panthers were eliminated last night, but at least they will be playing their starters and Delhomme is back. The Saints are treating this as a preseason game and will be sitting all their starters for most if not all the game. The Panthers will play with more heart in this one.

Carolina -2 (***)

Next, go with Houston -5 at home against Cleveland. I hear from the Sixth Man that when the linesmakers set a line like this, they are begging people to take the points. I agree. Houston is a decent team...not great, not terrible. They are at home and trying to build momentum with their young team. Cleveland isn't good and they are a team in disarray. Like the game above, Houston is the team with much more heart. They win this game going away.

Houston -5 (**)

I also am a big fan of Seattle +3 at Tampa. Tampa is terrible and they are starting Tim Rattay...let that sink in. Seattle does not want to go into the playoffs on a 5 game winning streak and Holgrem has already said as much. They need a win in the worst way. Wrong team favored in this one. Take Seattle +3 Straight UP!!!

Seattle +3 (***)

We will post the afternoon games by 2pm Central time and will also be posting the College Bowl Game at that time as well.

Saturday, December 30, 2006

2006-12-30T15:47:00.000-05:00

Not hot right now...yet. This is the birdman posting as Murdoch. Maybe the switcharoo will get us back on track. For the afternoon, I like Iowa +9 against Texas. Iowa had a down year but they have the talent to be a top 15 team. They have a senior QB and a great coach. They will definitely have more motivation in this game. On the other side you have a Texas team who is playing in a pre-new years day bowl when all they had to do was beat either Tex A&M or KState and they would be in a BCS bowl. They don't care one bit about this bowl game and it will show. Iowa would LOVE to beat Texas. Also, Colt McCoy is still banged up and will not be at full strength. I would not be surprised to see Iowa win this outright.

Iowa +9 (**)

Also, in NFL action tonight, I LOVE, repeat LOVE the G-Men -2. I am well aware of the fact that the Giants have been playing terribly and Washington has been respectable, but this game boils down to one thing: The Giants have everything to play for and the Skins have nothing to play for. The end of the year is imminent and the Skins know that...they have their bags packed and are ready for the offseason. THis is a game where they try not to get hurt. THe Giants however, will go all out for a victory tonight and the talk from their camp is that they have finally realized that their quarterback's name is Eli, not Peyton. Therefore, they are going to give the ball 25+ times to their best player (i.e. Tiki) and let him win it for them. We will all see a different Giants Team this week...and a flat Skins squad.

Giants -2 (***)

Saturday 12.30.06

2006-12-30T12:19:00.000-05:00

looking for a little bounce back today after a couple of tough losses yesterday. to start i'm going to take bc laying the seven against navy this afternoon. navy runs, runs, runs the ball. if you can stop the run against navy you will win and cover. rutgers held them to 2.3 ypc and murdered them 34-0, notre dame held them at 4.8 ypc and rolled 38-14. bc has allowed only 2 opponents to run for more than 66 yds in their last six games, and have the #13 run d. not to mention they are bigger and faster on both sides of the ball. bc has won six straight bowl games and look for them to continue today.

BC -7(**)

Friday, December 29, 2006

2006-12-29T12:36:00.000-05:00

Although Ok State tried to screw us, the Birdman's Bowl Game of the Year goes to 6-0!!! Now, you will have to trust me on this...I just spent about 45 minutes on a post only to have an "error" erase it all, so in order to get the games in on time, here are my picks with one-line analysis:

Clemson -10 (**)
Better team on both sides of the ball.

Missouri +4 (**)
Flu bug affected no starters...Ore St was outgained by every good opponent they played.

Houston +5 (***)
Houston has the "Fun & Gun", not Spurrier's Gamecocks.

Maryland Over 53 (***)
Two bad defenses + solid offenses + bowl game = lots of points.

Maryland +1 (**)
Purdue beat 0 teams with a winning record this season...Maryland is 8-4.

Texas Tech -7 (****)
Tech has the 3rd rated passing offense...Minn has the 115th passing defense. Nuff said.

K-STATE

2006-12-28T19:07:00.000-05:00

gentlemen, as we sit watching the end of the bowl g.o.t.y. i am going to write a quick post on one of the night games. tonight, take k-state plus the 9, even more if you can get it as the line has been moving up all day. for rutgers this is a letdown game, they feel like all year long they were lining up a bcs birth, and instead end up in some junk bowl game that most of the nation cant even watch because it's on nfltv. kstate has a new coach and everyone thinks they'll be blown out, sounds to me like they got a little more to get up for than the team from new jersey. also, with that many points on the table who can rule out a backdoor cover.

KSTATE +9 (**)

THE BIRDMAN'S BOWL GAME OF THE YEAR & Tonight's FSU v. UCLA game

2006-12-26T20:03:00.000-05:00

Well, here it is, my Game of the Year for the 2006-2007 Bowl Season. My Bowl Game of the Year is now 5-0 including a 42-13 Kansas rout of Houston last year (a KU cover by 25 points!!!). Without further ado, this season's Game of the Year is:

Oklahoma State -2 (*****)
Ok State is playing Alabama December 28, 2006 in the Independence Bowl. These two teams could not be more different. Bama is a team without a pulse. They have no coach, apparently no prospective coaches, no quality wins and no offense. Ok State has a young team with a coach the team respects and play hards for, a great offense, a couple quality wins and momentum going into 2007-2008.

When one takes a look more deeply into Alabama's schedule, one sees a very bad football team. Bama has 6 wins against the following teams: Hawaii (by 8 at home), Vanderbilt (by 3 at home), UL Monroe (by 35 at home), Duke (by 16 at home), Mississippi (by 3 at home), and Florida International (by 35 at home)...see a trend? Every game they won was at home...this team was dreadful on the road. Further, the only win that could be seen as somewhat legitimate was Hawaii and that was the first game of the year (before Hawaii hit its stride) and Hawaii is not exactly a road warrior themselves. Also of note, Bama started the year 3-0 before losing 6 of their final 9 (including a home beating by the hands of Miss St). Two of their wins came against Duke and FIU...both of them went winless on the season. Bama needed overtime to pull out a home victory against Ole Miss and they lost to EVERY decent team they faced this year.

On the other hand, OSU has a handful of quality victories. They beat Nebraska 41-29, and they won a couple road games (at Ark St 35-7 and at Kansas 42-32). In all their losses except one (Texas), they were in it till the end. They scored over 20 in every game except the Texas game and averaged 35 points per game. OSU has a ton of offensive firepower. Their only weakness is a defense that gives up yards and points; however, Bama is not the type of team that can take advantage of a bend (but don't break) defense. Bama's offense is not good enough.

To sum, if there were no controversy surrounding Bama's program right now, I would still pick the Cowboys to win this game easily as they are the better team. But, the problems at Bama cannot be ignored. They have a program that no one wants to coach at. Do you think their players don't know that? This team will not have any heart in this game and will throw in the towel by the 3rd quarter. I like the Cowboys to win this game by at least two TD's.

Oklahoma State -2 (*****)--BOWL GAME OF THE YEAR

For Tonight's Game, I like Florida State +4 (buying 1/2 point) against UCLA. These are two pretty equal teams, but I think that FSU's defense will shut down UCLA and with a new offensive coordinator (not related to Bowden), the FSU attack should be better. REmember, Bowden hasn't had a losing season in 30 years!!! Dont think that he and his team are not aware of this stat. FSU finds a way to get it done tonight.

Florida State +4 (**)
(Buying 1/2 point)

Boxing Day

2006-12-26T13:48:00.000-05:00

why has this line been dropping all week? central michigan has the better record in the better conference and is 11-2 ATS. they've won and covered 3 out of their last 4 and pounded ohio about a month ago in the mac championship on the same field as they're playing on tonight.

CENTRAL MICHIGAN -7(**)
buying the half point.

Merry Christmas

2006-12-25T14:57:00.000-05:00

Today, I like the Eagles +7 1/2 at Dallas. Philli is playing very well right now and they should have no problem staying within this number. I think this game is decided by a field goal one way or the other...more than one score is too much.

Eagles +7 1/2 (**)--buying half point

RAINBOWS

2006-12-24T13:05:00.000-05:00

the birdman and i today have a doubleheader to follow yesterday's 3-0 sweep.

first up, hawaii will pound arizona state and their outgoing coach this evening. get it while the getting's good now.

also, the education of jay cutler continues today. snowy weather favors the broncos in this one. and is carson injured, or is he not? also, if ocho y cinco keeps dropping balls like last week this one might be over early.

HAWAII -7(**)
DENVER -3(**)

Saturday, December 23, 2006

2006-12-23T11:05:00.000-05:00

Well, I was not going to mess with a good thing, which was Murdoch posting, but now that Rice really let us down with "lying" about the status of their stating QB, I feel it is about time the birdman did a post (or 2).

Today, me and murdoch's fav game is the early one. We both bought the hook and took South Florida -4. This is just a better team with a better offense AND defense. Also, we have the situation where a coach (i.e. south florida) decided to stay admist many offers and his players will rally behind this. S. Fla is the better team in the better situation today.

Besides South Florida, murdoch and I agree that the "smart" money is on san jose state and utah. SJS is playing a "road" game at New Mexico, but NM is just that bad....a terrible football team. They should win this game outright and they are the dogs by 3.5!! Utah is the same way...just the better team. They underachieved this season, but bowl games tend to be different and i expect them to beat an overrated Tulsa team tonight.

To sum:
South Florida -4 (**)
San Jose State +3.5 (**)
Utah -1 (**)

FYI: I will be releasing the BOWL GAME OF THE BOWL SEASON by Christmas Day. As a reminder, this game is 4-0 including last year's LOCK of KU over Houston. This game might be the best yet as me and the sixth man both picked the same game for our LOCK OF THE BOWL SEASON!!!

RICE

2006-12-22T14:46:00.000-05:00

tonight the birdman and i like rice, not as much as the mormons last night, but enough to take them over troy state. and since it's the only game on the schedule tonight you gotta take it. rice has been covering all year long in a tougher conference and despite being in a rare fav role should be able to get the job done tonight. this line moved down with word that starting rice qb chase clement was supposed to be out but it looks like he's going to play. after so many losing years rice finally is moving in the right direction and wont waste their first bowl appearance in 40+ years. me and birdman have both bought the hook.

RICE -4 (**)

BYU

2006-12-20T22:52:00.000-05:00

the birdman and i like the fighting mormons tomorrow night. this line has been moving in the wrong direction since it was announced and i dont see why. hasnt oregon been moving in the wrong direction all season. thought i'd put this up early for our boy cajun and let the birdman expound more on thursday.

BYU -3(**)

TCU

2006-12-19T12:09:00.000-05:00

i heard thru the grapevine that TCU is one of the sixth man's favorite games of the bowl season. that's all i need.

TCU -11.5 (**)

49ers

2006-12-14T11:33:00.000-05:00

too many points tonight for seattle to cover. seattle has only covered once out of the last four at home. sf will continue that tonight if they're getting double digit points. plus i hear the birdman in on the frank gore 07 train.

SAN FRANCISCO +10 (**)
OVER 38 (**)

Turkey Day '06

2006-11-22T14:37:00.000-05:00

For those of you that don't recall last year's "Turkey Day", PilotPicks was perfect, going 4-0. This year looks to be no different as the Birdman has 3 NFL winners for you to choose from:

First, in the morning game, I like the Lions +3 at home against the Dolphins. The Fins are winning, but one must look deep within the wins to see exactly how they are doing so. Against the Chiefs two weeks ago (a game the Birdman happened to attend), Miami did not impress anyone with their 13-10 victory, but the Chiefs, who were missing 6 starters due to injury, played their worst game since the opening week loss to the Bengals. And they still had a chance to win in the end. Then, last week, the Dolphins beat the Vikings 24-20 even though they had negative 1 yard rushing on the day. They won because of two defensive TD's in the 4th Quarter. I just think that too many people are jumping on Miami's bandwagon and forgetting that they are a bad team with Joey Harrington as their QB. It was always good to bet against Harrington on turkey day when he was a Lion, and nothing has changed now that he is a Dolphin. I don't think that Miami can pull off the victory against Martz and the Lions in Detroit.

Detroit +3 (**)

For the afternoon, I am going against the grain and picking the Bucs +11 at Dallas. I am doing so for 2 very good reasons. One, Dallas is coming off a very emotional, season-saving victory over teh Colts last week. Two, next week, Dallas plays the Giants, in New York. This game is what we like to call a sandwich game (or "lookahead" game if you prefer). The Cowboys will try to win this game while utilizing as little as possible...they are not overly worried about Tampa. ANyone who thinks they won't be peaking ahead to New York next week is lying to himself. Tampa, on the other hand, will not quit as they have a lot of young players and a coach that will not let them quit on him. They are coming off a win against Washington and would like nothing better than to stick it to Parcells.

Tampa Bay +11 (**)

Finally, I am not being a homer on this one, but take the Chiefs +1 at home against the Broncos. The Chiefs are a completely different team at Arrowhead and this is the definition of a "must" game for Kansas City. After their opening game loss to the Bengals, The Chiefs have won 4 straight at home (including beating the Chargers 34-31 a couple weeks ago. They have won their past 3 games against the Broncos in Arrowhead and it seems that, no matter the record, the Broncos have a difficult time competing here. Last year, this game was played in an almost identical situation and the Chiefs won it 31-27. This is the first night game in Turkey Day history and the Chiefs fans here couldn't be happier about it. Screw sitting around the table saying thanks, the Chefs' fans are going to be tailgating around a barbeque grill saying "F#$% the Broncos." The snake "ain't got it" according to Dr. Moonlight...I tend to agree.

Kansas City +1 (***)

Sunday -- 11/19/06

2006-11-19T11:38:00.000-05:00

Well, not a bad college day going 2-0-1...any time there are no losses is a good day in my book. Hope to have another good day today in the NFL, and I see some games that will make that possible.

First, I am on Cinn +3.5 at New Orleans. Cinn is in a must win game...they have been reeling a bit with last weeks 42 point second half by the Chargers being the low point. But, here they are getting over a field goal against a team that they are better than. Yes, N.O. has had some good things happen to them this season and they also have caught some lucky breaks, but they are not as good as their record indicates. Look for Cinn to finally listen to Rudi Johnson and give him the damn ball to move the chains and control the game. I think this is a step back for N.O. and a step forward to Cinn. I like the Bengals to win this game, but cover 3.5 for sure.

Cinn +3.5 (**)

Next, I like the Steelers -4 at Cleveland. Pitt, like Cinn, has been a disappointment this season, but I dont get this line at all. Pitt is a far superior team and although they have been losing, it isnt like they have been losing to teams of Cleveland's caliber. In their last 5 games agaisnt each other over the past 2 1/2 years, Pitt has won all 5 by at least 11 points. Not that much has changed...Pitt will win this game going away.

Pitt -4 (**)

Finally, I love the Colts as a PK against Dallas. I don't know if you have heard but Dallas is supposed to be good this season. I keep hearing that, but I am yet to see it. Indy on the other hand IS good...really good. Everyone told me to bet against them when the played at Denver, but I didn't. Then, it was smart money to bet against them at N.E., but I took Indy. Now, I don't know about you, but I think winning at Denver and at N.E. is tougher than winning at Dallas (a seriously flawed team). Manning will have a field day going down field against the suspect cover abilities of the Dallas defensive backs. I look for Indy to win this one by at least a TD.

Indy PK (***)

Judgment Saturday -- 11/18/06

2006-11-18T09:46:00.000-05:00

I don't know if anyone has heard, but there is a "big" game today between Michigan and Ohio State. I will not put anyone through anymore waiting by keeping my pick until the end of the post, but instead will lead off with it:

I got to go with Michigan in this game. I just think that these two teams are too similar and I actually think that Michigan has the better team. However, it is at the Horseshoe and that heavily favors Ohio State. I don't think that Ohio State will get anything on the ground (no one does agaisnt Mich) and then we will see who the real Troy Smith is when everything relies on him. Too many 3rd and longs = at least two picks. On the other hand, Mich is very balanced with Hart & Henne. I just can't get the thought out of my head that Ohio State is untested this year (their only big win was at Texas when Colt McCoy was still very green and it showed). This game goes down to the wire and is decided by a field goal.

Michigan +7 (**)

Next, I am going to go with Texas Tech -6 at home against Oklahoma State. Tech should be able to throw all over a bad Ok State secondary and they are coming into this game with some revenge after they lost 24-17 at Ok State last season. Tech is a completely different team at home and they will win this game going away.

Texas Tech -6 (**)

Every week I look at the Hawaii line and try to find reasons that the Warriors won't cover. I couldn't find any this week. They are damn near unstoppable at home and they have a SJS team coming in that lost a heartbreaker to Boise last week. They will still be feeling the effects of the last second loss where they left everything on the field...and now they travel to Hawaii to play the most potent offense in the country. I see Hawaii putting up over 60 points for the fifth straight game and winning this game by at least 35.

Hawaii -24 (**)